Analytical Prediction For Gold In Q4: Long-Term Price Movement Key Focus

The previous quarter’s assessment concluded with the following statement: “For the coming quarter, the analytical forecast does not seem to provide any truly clear views, suggesting that we may need to exercise patience before adopting a clearer transitional trading inclination.” This could be the case once more as we approach the year’s end.

This is not to say people can get comfortable in the absence of a major shift, as one may occur, but it is smart to keep assumptions in line with current realities. The falling wedge that is emerging is a longer-term emphasis. Given that the trend has been developing for well over a year when it finally breaks, the move might be fairly dramatic. To allow it to develop further, a trial of the formation’s smaller side might occur quite soon.

The critical horizontal area to monitor is approximately 1675; it has served as both opposition and support on multiple occasions since the pandemic’s inception. The most recent review and hold occurred in August, during the selloff. Will it continue to operate as a floor in Q4, or will it break, ushering in a surge of selling?

The mark to monitor on the upside is the higher boundary of the pattern heading down from the August 2020 peak to the May peak. This could operate as a limit, but if it breaches, the prospects for Gold could rapidly improve. When it comes to determining when the wedge will eventually break, the crest may not be reached until early 2022. If this is the case, an incredible pattern will have built as a result of the prolonged coiling price movements, and the wait till then could well justify the intensity generated by the breakout.

Summary Of The Technical Details

XAU/USD CHART. Source:  Tradingview.com

The Technical Confluences Sensor indicates that Gold has strength at $1,754, which is a collection of Bollinger Bands 15 min-Middle, Simple Moving Average 10-15m, Fibonacci 23.6 percent one-day, and many additional indicators. A more substantial safety lies at $1,748, which is the location of the critical Fibonacci 38.2 percent one-day and Fibonacci 23.6 percent one-month Fibonacci ratios. Looking upward, resistance awaits at $1,764, the intersection of the preceding daily bottom and the Fibonacci 38.2 percent one-day retracement. The next goal is $1,771, the level at which the Bollinger Band’s one-day Middle and the Pivot Point’s one-day Resistance 1 intersect.

Outline of the Fundamentals

Gold prices struggled on Friday to continue Thursday’s comeback, but remain solidly backed at the $1750 mark as Q4 2021 begins. The precious metal was expected to conclude the week virtually unchanged, as the rapid comeback has provided some reprieve for bulls, as the Price of gold is set to halt its three-week losing streak. The decline in US Treasury yields in the face of a risk-off market environment maintains a positive tone surrounding the gold price. Traders remain cautious in light of soaring electricity prices and a weakening global economic rebound, despite a delay in US political squabbling and the Fed’s trimming concerns.

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